This report measures the expansion of public attention around prediction markets and examines how search visibility changed during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The data do not establish that sport caused the wider growth of prediction markets. They show that a rapidly expanding market ecosystem entered football's largest global stage.
Wikimedia figures are all-access user pageviews for the English-language pages “Prediction market”, “Kalshi” and “Polymarket”. These figures measure reference-based attention to the wider prediction-market ecosystem; they do not identify which subjects, including sport, brought users to the pages.
| Wikipedia page | 20 Jul 2024–19 Jul 2025 | 20 Jul 2025–19 Jul 2026 | Change | Growth multiple | Peak in 20 Jul 2025–19 Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction market | 81,071 | 328,593 | +305.3% | 4.05× | 5,866 June 29, 2026 |
| Kalshi | 128,225 | 875,107 | +582.5% | 6.82× | 40,767 December 4, 2025 |
| Polymarket | 558,344 | 1,036,780 | +85.7% | 1.86× | 20,675 December 1, 2025 |
The three Google Trends series below were exported separately. Each is normalised independently, so the charts show timing and within-term changes only. A value of 100 marks that term's own highest point in its selected period and is not comparable with 100 for another term.
Peak: 100 on July 19, 2026.
Google Trends returned an index value of 0 throughout the pre-tournament window, indicating that search volume was below the level at which measurable relative interest was consistently reported. Measurable Google Trends values first appeared during the tournament window.
Index on the final day: 100. This was 9.86× the average of the preceding seven days. Given the low-volume nature of the term, this should be interpreted as a timing signal rather than evidence of high absolute search demand.
Peak: 100 on June 12, 2026.
The average index during the tournament was +11.7% relative to the pre-tournament average.
Index on the final day: 34. This was 1.56× the average of the preceding seven days.
Peak: 100 on July 19, 2026.
The average index during the tournament was +82.1% relative to the pre-tournament average.
Index on the final day: 100. This was 2.03× the average of the preceding seven days.
FIFA announced on 2 April 2026 that ADI Predictstreet had become its first-ever official partner for the prediction-market category. FIFA also described safeguards including real-time monitoring of suspicious trading activity and structured information-sharing and reporting systems. Read the official FIFA announcement.
On the day of the final, Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset called for a “third half”: a working dialogue aimed at building the integrity framework for the 2030 World Cup before the tournament is played. Read “Before the final whistle”.